Documentation/Risk Outcomes

Risk Outcomes

GitGov already captures policy, CI, and traceability signals. The next step is to present these as business outcomes your engineering leadership can track over time.

This page defines the current KPI model used in the Control Plane and how to interpret each signal.


Why This Matters

Enterprise buyers do not purchase logs alone. They buy:

  • lower delivery risk,
  • faster audit evidence,
  • and predictable governance behavior.

Risk outcomes convert technical events into language that security, compliance, and leadership teams can act on.


Core KPIs (Current)

1. Trusted Path Rate

How much delivery activity follows the expected governed route.

Formula:

trusted_path_rate = tracked_pushes / (tracked_pushes + blocked_pushes)

Interpretation:

  • Higher is better.
  • A drop usually means policy friction, unsafe behavior attempts, or onboarding gaps.

2. Blocked Push Rate

How often policy blocked push attempts.

Formula:

blocked_push_rate = blocked_pushes / (tracked_pushes + blocked_pushes)

Interpretation:

  • Moderate values can be healthy during rollout.
  • Sustained high values indicate policy mismatch or repeated unsafe patterns.

3. Traceability Gap

Share of commits without ticket correlation.

Formula:

traceability_gap = 100 - ticket_coverage_percentage

Interpretation:

  • Lower is better.
  • High values reduce audit defensibility and release accountability.

4. Pipeline Failure Rate (7d)

Build instability in the recent 7-day window.

Formula:

pipeline_failure_rate = failed_pipelines_7d / total_pipelines_7d

Interpretation:

  • Correlates engineering delivery risk and operational rework.

5. Sonar Failure Rate (Sample)

Quality gate failures in Sonar-correlated pipeline runs.

Formula:

sonar_failure_rate = sonar_failed_runs / sonar_total_runs

Interpretation:

  • Helps quantify technical debt and quality regressions in new code.

6. Unresolved Violation Rate

Open governance violations as a share of total violations.

Formula:

unresolved_violation_rate = unresolved_violations / total_violations

Interpretation:

  • Measures backlog pressure in governance and response workflows.

Composite Risk Score (0–100)

The dashboard computes a weighted score from currently available signals:

  • blocked push rate,
  • traceability gap,
  • pipeline failure rate,
  • sonar failure rate,
  • unresolved violation rate.

When some signals are missing, GitGov shows signal coverage (n/5) so readers can evaluate confidence in the score.


Operating Bands (Recommended)

  • Low Risk: < 35
  • Medium Risk: 35–59
  • High Risk: >= 60

These bands are operational defaults. Tune thresholds per repository criticality once you have stable telemetry.


Tier Profiles (Now in Dashboard)

The Control Plane now supports tier-aware scoring profiles in the admin dashboard selector (Critical, Standard, Internal).

Each profile changes:

  • score weights (readiness and composite risk),
  • readiness color bands,
  • and KPI SLA targets used for visual alerts.

Default SLA targets by tier

TierMin readinessMax blocked pushMax traceability gapMax pipeline failuresMax sonar failuresMax unresolved violations
Critical>= 85<= 5%<= 15%<= 10%<= 12%<= 30%
Standard>= 75<= 10%<= 25%<= 20%<= 20%<= 40%
Internal>= 65<= 15%<= 35%<= 30%<= 30%<= 50%

Use Standard as baseline, then move each repository to Critical or Internal once telemetry is stable for at least 2-4 weeks.


Practical Rollout Pattern

  1. Baseline each KPI per repo tier (critical backend, internal tooling, etc.).
  2. Track trend weekly, not just snapshots.
  3. Set one owner for each KPI (engineering manager or platform lead).
  4. Use policy changes and quality gates to move one KPI at a time.
  5. Export monthly evidence for governance and audits.

Operational Metrics Already Surfaced

The admin dashboard already surfaces two informational operational metrics from correlated Jenkins evidence:

  • Time-to-Evidence — commit timestamp to correlated pipeline ingestion timestamp.
  • MTTR pipeline — recoverable non-green pipeline event to the next successful run for the same job.

These metrics are sample-based and are not yet SLO-backed product guarantees. They are not included in the composite risk/readiness score until tier-specific SLO thresholds are calibrated.

Remaining Iteration

Remaining roadmap work is to turn those sample-based metrics into calibrated SLOs and to make release readiness trends easier to consume by repository tier. This should feed the Enterprise Action Center instead of creating another standalone report chain.

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